UK retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.4% month on month in March 2025, the third consecutive month of rises and something of a surprise after analysts had predicted that they would dip.
This follows a rise of 0.7% in February (revised down from a rise of 1% in the last bulletin from the Office for National Statistics). Sales volumes rose by 2.6% over the year to March 2025.
And the best news? Clothing and outdoor retailers reported that good weather boosted sales, although these increases were partly offset by falls in supermarket sales. Also, volumes were down by 0.3%, compared with their pre-pandemic level in February 2020.
Looking at the quarter, sales volumes rose by 1.6% in Q1 compared to the final quarter of last year and by 1.7% year on year.
For the month, non-food stores sales volumes — the total of department, clothing, household and other non-food stores — rose by 1.7%. And, as mentioned, within non-food stores, clothing stores were the subsector with the strongest growth with retailers saying the unusually sunny weather had an impact.
Non-store retailing sales volumes were up on the month, with similar commentary received about the weather, specifically mentioning boosts to clothing and DIY goods.
The Met Office climate summaries reported that the UK had its third-sunniest March on record, and reported that March 2025 was warmer and drier than usual.
Meanwhile the amount spent online or — online spending values — rose by 2% over the month to March 2025. Sales values also rose by 5.4% year on year.
But while analysts were pleased with the figures, they included notes of caution in their assessments. Jacqui Baker, head of retail at consulting firm RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group said the numbers “should provide some reason for optimism in the retail sector. April’s increase in National Minimum Wage will also mean consumers have more money in their pocket which should feed through to increased spending. Unfortunately, this good news for retailers might not be enough to offset the significant headwinds of rising employment costs and uncertainty surrounding tariffs. This additional layer of uncertainty will impact purchasing decisions, future supply chains and place further pressure on already squeezed margins.”
And Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM, added: “The third consecutive monthly rise in retail sales volumes in March confirms that consumers returned to stores in the first quarter of this year. However, the world has changed since March with the announcement of US tariffs and the associated huge increase in uncertainty. Indeed, consumer confidence dropped by four points in April.”
Jacqueline Windsor, Head of retail at PwC UK thinks March’s retail sales “should be read with care as the ONS adjusts for the impact of Easter and school holidays falling in April this year” and she added that “ironically, the only thing that the warm dry weather did not seem to help was the high street itself, with penetration of online retail sales increasing from 26.4% in February to 26.8% in March.”
Greg Zakowicz, senior e-commerce expert at Omnisend, called the retail recovery “fragile” but Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, thinks the “unexpected rise in retail sales may indicate a turning point for retailers”.
Meanwhile Deann Evans, MD EMEA at Shopify, said its data showed strong sales of outdoor goods. Summer fashion was also a driver of March sales, with Chino Shorts rising by a huge 530.9% compared to February — and tank tops (389.3%) and crop tops (387.3%) close behind.
Copyright © 2025 FashionNetwork.com All rights reserved.
