Apr 12, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts after catching a pop fly against the San Francisco Giants during the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Horak-Imagn Images A year ago this morning, Aaron Judge woke up hitting .207 with six homers, and the Houston Astros were in last place in the AL West with the fourth-worst record in baseball.
On the other hand, Shohei Ohtani was hitting .336 with seven homers and five stolen bases, while the Chicago White Sox had the worst record in the game.
All of which is to say that some of the rest-of-season predictions we make today — with one full month of the schedule in the rearview mirror — will look foolish come October, while others will (perhaps) prove prescient. Here are six predictions for what we’ll see over the next five months:
AARON JUDGE CHASES .400
Here’s the thing about Judge: He’s so good, it’s hard to come up with an achievement that sounds out of the realm of possibility. So let’s go with hitting .400 — which no one has done since Ted Williams in 1941. Judge enters today hitting an insane .427, to go along with his usual power production (10 homers, tied with Cal Raleigh for the AL lead, and an AL-best 32 RBIs).
A hot start is one thing, but Judge’s last 162 games dating to April 27, 2024 — a span in which he is hitting .369 with 64 homers and 163 RBIs — is perhaps the greatest 162-game run in history. At his current pace of 3.8 at-bats per game, Judge needs to hit “just” .395 (197-for-499) the rest of the way to finish at .400. Sure, it’s unlikely. But are you willing to declare it’s impossible?
THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR DETROIT TIGERS WILL WIN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT
Apr 30, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Detroit Tigers catcher Tomas Nido (58) is helped up by Detroit Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres (25) after scoring a run against the Houston Astros during the third inning at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images Everyone in the AL except the poor White Sox is within seven games of .500, which means everyone except the White Sox (OK, and the Los Angeles Angels) can probably envision a realistic-sounding path to the World Series. But the Yankees have Judge and are the defending league champs, while the Tigers — much like the New York Mets in the NL — seem to be building on the momentum generated by last season’s surprising trip to the playoffs.
THE JACOB DEGROM OF OLD IS NEVER COMING BACK
Mar 25, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) delivers a pitch to the Kansas City Royals in the third inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-Imagn Images He’s still really, really good — 1-1 with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 33 innings — with really, really good stuff, including a 97 mph fastball and an 89 mph slider. But after undergoing a second Tommy John surgery in June 2023, the days of deGrom throwing 102 mph with a slider he could ramp up to 96 mph — which he did while posting a 2.53 ERA and averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings from 2014 through 2023 — are probably over.
Yet if anyone can figure out a way to win a third Cy Young Award with A-minus stuff and carve himself a Sandy Koufax-ian path to Cooperstown, it’s deGrom.
SOMEONE OTHER THAN THE LOS ANGELES DODGERS WILL WIN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT
Apr 27, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow (31) reacts after a pitch during the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images Wow, taking the field instead of a single team — way to be bold! But the absurdly deep nature of the NL, along with the Dodgers’ rotation going from comically deep to typically threadbare in just a month, means the Senior Circuit is much more wide-open than it looked when Los Angeles collected every good player on the market over the winter. A team with a little less tread on its tires might be better positioned for the October grind.
THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES’ WINDOW HAS SLAMMED SHUT
Apr 29, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second base Bryson Stott (5) celebrates with outfielder Nick Castellanos (8) after scoring the winning run on a wild pitch during the ninth inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images The Phillies have won four straight games, and Hall of Fame-bound president Dave Dombrowski won’t hesitate to shake things up if things seem to be trending in the wrong direction. Still, warning signs abound for a team that’s gone from losing in the World Series to losing in the NLCS to losing in the NLDS over the last three years.
The Phillies rank 12th in the NL with 24 homers and are 13th with a 5.03 bullpen ERA. And while Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo look like All-Stars, Aaron Nola is 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA.
CORBIN BURNES’ CONTRACT WILL NOT AGE WELL
Apr 1, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images There’s a certain amount of safety in this one — most nine-figure contracts for starting pitchers don’t look great on the back end. But Burnes, in the first season of a six-year deal worth $210 million with the Arizona Diamondbacks, has already shown signs of decline in his opening act in the desert.
He’s walked 17 batters and is averaging a career-low 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings over 32 2/3 innings. When he won the Cy Young in 2021, Burnes walked just 34 batters in 167 innings and averaged 12.6 strikeouts per nine frames. There’s a long way to go, but there’s also a long way to go.
