NHL March 20th Best Bet: Montreal Canadiens vs. New York Islanders

The madness might be out in full force today, but that doesn’t mean all the other sports need to be neglected — especially from a betting standpoint!

Yes, plenty of gambling opportunities still exist outside of the NCAA basketball tournament. Even on the pitch, where World Cup qualifying matchups are being played throughout the world. (Hopefully you caught my Libya-Angola under wager earlier, by the way.)

But we’re going to stick with the pros on the hardwood and on the ice as far as tonight goes. First, we have a critical Eastern Conference affair to be played between the Montreal Canadiens and New York Islanders that will have huge implications on the postseason picture.

As it stands, Montreal is in possession of the second and final wild-card playoff berth with 73 points. The Islanders are one of the teams closely behind them, carrying 70 points, so this is somewhat of a must-win game for the Long Island residents with only precious time remaining in the campaign.

To New York’s credit, they’ve hung in there since jettisoning longtime franchise stalwart Brock Nelson earlier this month and are coming off impressive back-to-back victories, including one against the second-best team in the East, the Florida Panthers.

The common denominator in all their games since Nelson was traded is that they’ve all been low scoring. In fact, all six of those contests featured final scores that added up to no more than six total goals.

Such a tendency could continue further with the Islanders recently losing Mathew Barzal to injury and now one of their best offensive defensemen, Alexander Romanov, out due to an illness.

Tonight’s high stakes also point to a tightly played encounter, which can be a contributing trait to an under. It certainly also helps that the Isles are last as is in the conference in goals scored, with 2.7 per game.

The Canadiens can certainly put the puck in the net, being one of the 13 teams this year that is manufacturing at least three goals on average. The duo of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield on the club’s No. 1 line is about as dangerous as any. However, they’re about to tangle with one of the best goaltenders in the NHL in Ilya Sorokin.

Not only is Sorokin in the upper echelon at his position, he’s also someone that’s given this opponent fits. In six career meetings with Montreal, he’s 4-0-2 with a sparkling 1.47 goals-against average and .949 save percentage.

The 29-year-old Russian native is enjoying another nice year between the pipes and is amid one of his best months of the season. For March, Sorokin is 5-2-1 with a 2.52 GAA and .915 save percentage while facing nearly 30 shots per game.

He’ll likely face less action on this night, as the Habs register fewer shots per game (25.9) than anyone else in the Eastern Conference.

Again, let’s reiterate the tightness in which this matchup will be constructed. Samuel Montembeault should do his part as well and help keep the scoring to a minimum.

Considering the total is universally 5.5 everywhere, I’m tacking on an academic NBA prop (similar to Saturday) in order to grab an extra goal while keeping the odds low.

That prop comes in the Raptors-Warriors contest from the late-night slate and will require both Stephen Curry and Scottie Barnes to churn out over 9.5 points. A simple extra leg, right?

Pick: Canadiens-Islanders Under 6.5, Barnes/Curry both Over 9.5 points (-125, DraftKings)

NHL betting record: 36-31-3, -2.26 units
Over/unders: 21-22-3
Goalie props: 15-9

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

Follow me @MattZylbert on Twitter/X for potentially more picks added there.