
The march to the conference finals continues with the Celtics taking on the Knicks in New York City and the Timberwolves facing Golden State in San Francisco. The odds lean heavily toward the favorites, but that doesn’t mean they’ll make our “NBA Playoff Best Bet” list for the day.
As always, be sure to line shop and find the best odds available for your market of choice. But for the sake of this post, odds are via DraftKings unless otherwise stated.
Boston Celtics (-6.5) vs. New York Knicks (+200), O/U 208.5
Knicks +6.5
After letting massive leads slip away in Games 1 and 2, the Knicks got it together in Game 3, winning easily 115–93. Boston responded in Game 4 — but can New York now follow suit?
Now that both sides have taken a shot from the other and survived, look for each team to buckle down. Boston likely won’t suffer a dreadful shooting night like it did in Game 1, and New York is expected to shoot better than it did in Game 3.
Consequently, expect a close game that could come down to whoever has the last shot. While the recommendation is to take New York and the points, there’s also value on the moneyline at +200.
Jayson Tatum, UNDER 27.5 points (-115)
He averaged close to 27 points per game during the regular season and recorded 30-plus in three of four games in the first round. But Tatum has not gotten it done in the second round (22, 13 and 23 points). It wouldn’t be shocking to see him explode in Game 4, but he could just as easily continue to struggle — which is why the UNDER is the pick.
Jalen Brunson, OVER 27.5 points (-115)
Brunson cleared this line once against Boston (Game 1, 29 points) and nearly hit it again in Game 3 (27 points). He did it five times in six games vs. Detroit in the first round and hasn’t gone more than three games all season without a 30-point performance.
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Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5) vs. Golden State Warriors (+185), O/U 199.5
Timberwolves -5.5
Jimmy Butler had a 33-point night in Game 3, and the Warriors still lost by five. Without more help for Butler, there’s no way Golden State can beat the Timberwolves — and there just isn’t anyone on the roster who can be consistently counted on. The Warriors will keep it close early, but Minnesota should pull away in the second half.
Jimmy Butler, OVER 26.5 points (-120)
Butler did his part with 33 points in Game 3. With the offense continuing to run through him, he’ll get the volume he needs to surpass 30 again.
Julius Randle, OVER 20.5 points (-110)
Anthony Edwards is, of course, the lead option for Minnesota. But Randle has been a reliable secondary source of scoring, with 18 in Game 1 and 24 in both Games 2 and 3. He also recorded 22-plus in four of five games against the Lakers in the first round.
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