NBA Best Bets: May 5 Playoff Picks for Celtics vs. Knicks, Nuggets vs. Thunder

The NBA postseason continues today with Celtics-Knicks and Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals between the Nuggets and Thunder. With so many exciting players and teams on the court, it’s going to be challenging to devise our NBA “Best Bets” list for the day.

But we do a lot of the legwork—sifting through the hundreds of markets available for each game, looking for the best bets so you don’t have to (although you should always do some of your own homework).

Here are our NBA “Best Bets” for today’s playoff games (odds via DraftKings):

New York Knicks (+9) vs. Boston Celtics (-380), o/u 213

New York is going to have a real challenge on its hands in this game. Boston dominated the Knicks in the regular season, sweeping the series and winning three of four games by double digits.

They’ll need Jalen Brunson to play even better than he did against the Pistons (31.5 points, 8.2 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game). It would certainly help if they could get more out of Karl-Anthony Towns, too.

Of course, they’ll need to slow down Jayson Tatum (31.2 points and 11.3 rebounds per game)—something they couldn’t figure out how to do in the regular season. There’s no reason to think they’ll do so now.

Pick: Celtics -9

Jayson Tatum, OVER 27.5 Points (-125)
He averaged over 31 points in the postseason and scored more than 27.5 in three of four games vs. the Knicks in the regular season (he had 25 in the outlier). There’s no reason to think the Knicks can slow him down. Until someone does, I’m taking the over.

Jalen Brunson, UNDER 27.5 Points (-115)
Brunson scored over 27.5 just once against Boston in the regular season. While he averaged 31.5 per game against the Pistons, the Celtics’ defense is much, much tougher than Detroit’s. If Karl-Anthony Towns struggles, there’s a chance Brunson goes off.

But when Towns struggled in the regular season matchups, Boston still held Brunson to the low 20s.

Denver Nuggets (+9.5) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-420), o/u 225

Oklahoma City has been the “it” team of the year as its high-powered offense plowed through opponents. However, Denver gave them a good fight in the regular season—the two teams split the series 2-2.

With the Thunder having more than a week off and the Nuggets playing Sunday, I might lean toward OKC. Then again, Denver was 14-9 in games with a rest disadvantage, so it may not be a factor.

I could make a solid case for either team to win this game, but with Nikola Jokic playing as well as he is (24.0 points, 11.6 rebounds and 10.1 assists per game vs. the Clippers), I’d be surprised to see the Thunder win by double digits.

Pick: Nuggets +9.5

Nikola Jokic, to record a triple-double (+120)
Jokic averaged a triple-double during the regular season series vs. OKC (24.5 points, 15.8 rebounds and 11.5 assists). He also averaged one in the first round vs. the Clippers, though he recorded just three in seven games. In the four regular season games vs. OKC, he had two.

The Thunder couldn’t contain him then, and with how he’s been playing, I’d expect it to be even tougher now. Jokic may not score 20-plus, but he’ll record a triple-double.

Chet Holmgren, UNDER 1.5 Made 3-pointers (+130)
He hit three or more in three of four games vs. Memphis, but in four regular-season games vs. Denver, he went just 3-for-15. He did have two makes in one game but was shut out in two others. After such a long layoff, he’ll likely struggle to find his three-point stroke against a solid Nuggets defense.