MLB Player Prop Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers, April 17

Once again, Winsday delivered in the form of another over/under triumph. Hopefully, you didn’t catch that late-night prop bet (on Twitter/X), though, posted just minutes before the Rockies-Dodgers series finale. Whoops.

Gambling on a proposition is exactly how we’ll try to profit from this Thursday slate. There’s one all bettors should look at in the final game of action today, with the Texas Rangers aiming to sweep out the Los Angeles Angels from Arlington.

The Rangers secured the first two contests of this three-game set with surprisingly only seven combined runs. L.A., meanwhile, has only scored a single run in this series, which came in the top of the sixth inning of last night’s ballgame.

For this bet, we’re just worried about the Texas batting order and making things difficult for starter Jack Kochanowicz, a second-year pitcher for the Halos who is trying to find his footing at the major league level.

Kochanowicz found some success in 11 starts as a rookie a season ago. Despite being saddled with a 2–6 record, the former third-round draft choice did register a respectable 3.99 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. At the same time, opposing batters hit .275 off the 6-foot-7 right-hander.

In a throwback to pitchers of years past, when Ks were a lot more infrequent, Kochanowicz comically only accumulated a mere 25 strikeouts (though he did walk just 10) across his 65 1/3 innings of work — that is a woeful punch-out rate of 3.44 K/9.

So far this season, Kochanowicz’s strikeout rate is slightly up — 5.17 K/9 — but so is his ERA (5.74) and WHIP (1.34), which is a troubling sign considering he’s been fortunate that there’s only a .250 batting average on balls put in play with him on the mound.

Two of the youngster’s assignments as a freshman came opposite the Rangers, and while Kochanowicz actually did notch a quality start in both efforts, the most remarkable thing is that he managed only a single strikeout across the two outings combined. One!

Kochanowicz faced 55 Rangers batters in total, and the lone strikeout he could pull off was against dead-bat Dustin Harris, who likely won’t even be in the lineup this evening after being penciled into the batting order last night.

The point is that if Kochanowicz is unable to put people away via the K, he’s probably building too high of a pitch count and won’t be able to go deep into the game. Texas is a team that will make you pay if you’re constantly allowing them to put the ball in play.

The Rangers are off to a strong start, but their offense is not. However, that will change in due time, and tonight’s attempt at a sweep presents a desirable opportunity to get some activity going on the scoreboard. At the very least, they’ll be making Kochanowicz work — and in turn, it likely won’t lead him to make it through the sixth.

Pick: Jack Kochanowicz Under 16.5 Outs (-115, bet365)

2023 MLB Betting Record: 11–10–1, -1.33 unit
Over/Unders: 10–7–1
Props: 1–2
MLs: 0–1
Yesterday’s Results: Diamondbacks-Marlins Under 9 (WIN), Bobby Miller Over 14.5 Outs (loss)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.