MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins, March 27

A world exists now where a Pirates-Marlins matchup is arguably the main event of a Major League Baseball Opening Day slate.

“How is this possible?” you may quizzically wonder.

For starters, we must acknowledge the first-ever Opening Day for one Paul Skenes, baseball’s next pitching superstar. Many might say he already is one after his dazzling rookie campaign a year ago that landed him in the top three for the National League Cy Young Award.

It was a generational freshman showing for the 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick. Skenes dominated Triple-A competition and found himself in the majors early. He was excellent right off the bat, even earning the nod to start for the NL in the All-Star Game.

Ultimately, Skenes finished 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 while also remarkably holding hitters below the Mendoza Line. Yes, opponents hit just .198 against him.

And now here he is, commencing his next rodeo with a salivating date in Miami. This Marlins team—like last year—is undoubtedly one of the weaker offenses in all of baseball.

It’s almost like the league pinpointed the highest-percentage spot for Skenes to succeed right away to begin his sophomore year (nah, Rob Manfred isn’t that advanced).

Trusting someone as special as Skenes to start things right against this particular bottom feeder is a worthy move.

Now let’s bask in the other huge storyline in this Opening Day encounter: Sandy Alcantara is back on a major league mound.

While it’s always a big variable when someone returns after more than a year out of action, don’t forget that Alcantara is a recent Cy Young Award winner and—based on his spring training performance—may still be one of the best pitchers in the NL.

The 29-year-old didn’t have his usual strong season when we last saw him two years ago, but injuries largely played a role in those underachieving results. He did require Tommy John surgery that wiped out all of his 2024 season, after all.

I prefer to think of the Sandy Alcantara who notched consecutive 200-strikeout campaigns from 2021-22, including securing the biggest individual accolade a pitcher can achieve in a season. He’s been consistently good ever since first arriving in the Marlins rotation seven years ago.

Alcantara’s spring results are definitely encouraging, too—he didn’t allow a single earned run across his 12 1/3 innings of work and registered a 0.97 WHIP.

Of course, that is a small sample size, but he is drawing a fine opportunity to continue that good work against the Pirates.

There are certainly some quality hitters in this lineup. Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen stand out, while Ke’Bryan Hayes and free-agent acquisition Tommy Pham can provide some power at times. Outside of them, though, not much punch is involved.

We’ll also look toward Alcantara’s experience facing some of the Pirates’ veterans. Notably, Reynolds and McCutchen are a combined 1-for-19 (.053) against the 6-foot-5 right-hander with seven strikeouts (Cruz has never faced Alcantara).

Since it’s both pitchers’ season debuts and I’m not sure if I trust the bullpens, the wise move may be to bet on the first five innings rather than the full game. As long as they’re faring decently, Skenes and Alcantara should consume the entirety of that stretch and lead us home at the halfway point.

Pick: First five innings under 3.5 (-135, FanDuel)

2025 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 0-0

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

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