MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals, April 23

Phew, what a relief it was escaping last night’s Rockies-Royals Under bet with a victory. That just goes to show how cruel and unusual gambling can be when the word “escape” even has to be used for an under 8.5 wager that was 2-0 in the ninth with only one strike left in the ballgame!

But nevertheless, we persevered — and we’re going back for more on this Winsday. To The K, that is, for the next affair of this three-game interleague set between the Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals.

As has been a theme for both clubs early in the season, there hasn’t been much offense, and that was on full display last night. Colorado was completely shut down by Zylbert guy Kris Bubic in the series opener and was shut out before rallying in the top of the ninth frame for a few runs — all while down to their final out — off closer Carlos Estévez.

The Royals couldn’t do much either, plating only a pair before having to even the score 3-3 on a sac fly in their last licks to extend the game to extra innings. They would go on to win it 4-3 after a knock from backup catcher Freddy Fermin in the bottom of the 11th.

Entering play today, these are the two teams tied for the fewest runs (71) in all of baseball, and I’m anticipating a similar outcome for the second meeting — albeit with a not-as-exciting pitching matchup. Germán Márquez and Michael Lorenzen are going toe to toe.

Understandably, some bettors may be intimidated by Márquez’s 8.27 ERA on the season. That, however, is mostly the result of one really bad showing, which came last time out against the defending world champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Márquez was drilled for seven runs — including two home runs — and failed to even make it through the first inning.

On the bright side, let’s note who the opponent was: the Dodgers. They can do that against anyone, and we’ll simply chalk that up as an anomaly. The important thing is that Márquez appears to be settling in again after missing more than a year of major league action due to Tommy John surgery.

Márquez returned in the second half of last season but made just one start before being shelved again for the remainder of the campaign. Based on his average fastball velocity so far this year, the good news is that the Venezuela native may be in the process of reclaiming his old form.

Additional good news — at least as far as this evening is concerned — is that he’ll be making a start away from Colorado. Throughout his career, Márquez has flashed some of the more distinct home-and-road splits among all starting pitchers in the game. In 87 career appearances (86 starts) at Coors Field, he’s posted a 5.07 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. But in 94 games (92 starts) on the road, those marks (3.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) are considerably better.

The counterpart, Lorenzen, is also a non-flashy starter capable of quality work that can prevent this one from getting out of hand. Most people probably don’t realize that the 11-year veteran registered the lowest ERA (3.31) of his career last season since transitioning to a full-time starter — and he accomplished this between two teams (Texas Rangers, Royals).

Lorenzen obviously doesn’t throw as hard as he once did out of the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen years ago, but he deserves his flowers for the strides he’s made as a respectable starter. Counting on him against one of the league’s softer batting orders doesn’t seem like too much of a gamble.

Feel free to scan both of tonight’s lineups — they’re not good! Plenty of dead bats (i.e., Aaron Schunk, Kyle Isbel) are featured on each side, and with OK starting pitching pacing the way, that will hopefully keep this matchup from going beyond the 5–4, 6–3, or 7–2 game script. With the cost of getting the total at 9 not being too pricey, I suggest buying a half run.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-131, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 17-14-1, +0.31 unit
Over/Unders: 15-10-1
Props: 2-3
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Rockies-Royals Under 8.5 (WIN)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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