Aug 23, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) smiles to fans as he leaves the field after hitting a walk-off grand slam home run, his 40th of the season, in the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Dodger Stadium. Watson. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images The Los Angeles Dodgers famously play in the National League West, with the New York Mets in the NL East.
The distance between Dodger Stadium and Citi Field is about 2,500 miles, which is not as far as Shohei Ohtani hitting a home run toward the east for the Dodgers, or Juan Soto hitting one west for the Mets, it just feels that way sometimes.
Things get a lot cozier between last season’s National League Championship Series participants within the context of team payrolls. They’re practically next-door neighbors when it comes to how much they spend to win. And it’s a gated community containing only two massive compounds.
The Dodgers and Mets are the only clubs in a 30-team league that have allocated at least $300 million for payroll in 2025, per Cot’s Contracts at Baseball Prospectus.
In close proximity to the Dodgers and Mets live the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, who are set to spend north of $241 million, which would trigger the Competitive Balance Tax. All are among a group of teams that have earmarked at least $200 million to spend on payroll, also including the Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels.
To many, this is the beginning and the end of a conversation about who can win the World Series. But is it really? Dodgers team president Andrew Friedman attempted to offer some nuance here.
With the Dodgers on the verge of winning the World Series this past fall, Friedman asserted it would be facile to say players’ salaries are the end all in order to beat all. The Dodgers spent about $40 million less on payroll than the Yankees and nearly $63 million less than the Mets, according to Cot’s Contracts.
“Payrolls don’t decide the standings,” Friedman said. “Seedings going into the playoffs don’t decide who wins the World Series. We’ve seen a lot of teams spend money and not do it well.”
Yet, the teams most likely to win the World Series in 2025 are the ones who will spend the most.
Taking a cursory look at payrolls as reported at Spotrac, almost any number of teams outside of the top 10 in spending could reach the World Series. It’s easier to count the teams that probably have no chance: the Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies, and the Washington Nationals likely will be home come October. Everything else is up for grabs.
Spending on payroll can correlate to reaching the postseason in a given season, but there always are exceptions. Look no further than the 2024 playoff field that included the Padres (14th), Kansas City Royals (20th), Milwaukee Brewers (21st), Baltimore Orioles (22nd), Cleveland Guardians (24th) and Detroit Tigers (26th).
In 2023, five teams ranked 19th or lower in payroll made the playoffs.
There are efficient spenders to envy over the past decade. The 2017 Astros were 17th in payroll and won the World Series. The Royals won it all in 2015 and were 13th in payroll.
After the 2023 season, Tigers general manager Scott Harris echoed Friedman’s assertion about what spending can do — and cannot — at least for his own team.
“The path to contention involves stacking as many good baseball decisions as we possibly can,” Harris said. “The quicker we can do that, the quicker we’re going to be an annual contender in this division.
“When I think about (making additions) in the offseason, I see there’s no shortcuts to contention. When I think about what we can do as an organization, we can spend to compliment a core; we can’t spend to build a core.”
It is unquestionably true that the Dodgers spend more money across the board than any other team, though not all of it goes to payroll. Friedman stressed that player development is what builds their foundation.
Enormous resources allow the Dodgers to land the big fish in free agency, but player development allows them the depth to add other front-line players. It’s how they acquired Mookie Betts in a trade from the Boston Red Sox.
Big names and bigger money don’t always equal big success. The Angels make the playoffs exactly zero times with Mike Trout and Ohtani on the roster.
When’s the last time the Yankees held a parade through the Canyon of Heroes? The Mets have been storing ticker tape for decades, even though owner Steve Cohen has made it a point to lead the league in payroll for three seasons, going on four. He spends, and the Mets contend, but he would prefer a more holistic approach.
“I’ve always wanted to be more measured in payroll growth,” Cohen told reporters at spring training. “I never get there. It’s never quite there. I have the ability to spend if I have to. And I want to win and I want to put the best team I can on the field. But free agency’s expensive. It’s just the way it is, and it’s always more expensive than you can imagine.”
The Dodgers might spend more money than most teams do on expensive free agents, but they also act like they don’t want to. Ohtani’s huge contract (10 years and $700 million) is actually much less costly in the present because of deferrals Ohtani insisted upon.
One of the reasons Ohtani took deferrals is because of the foundation that Friedman built that isn’t only free agents. It’s a set of conditions that really only the Dodgers can offer. The Minnesota Twins couldn’t pay Ohtani $700 million deferred, not because they don’t have the money, but because they don’t have everything else Ohtani would need to fulfill such an offer.
“(Ohtani) talked about how much he wants to win, and I think we all jive very well on that point,” Friedman said. “So when he presented that structure, it was, ‘Hey, would this allow you guys to be more aggressive?’ Yeah, definitely. So it did.”
Being heavy spenders in payroll and other expenditures has allowed the Dodgers to win 11 NL West titles in 12 years. But the 2024 championship was their second World Series win since 1988, and first in that span in a full season.
The last time the MLB team that spent the most on payroll and also won the World Series came in 2020 with the Dodgers — albeit with salaries slashed because of the shortened COVID-19 pandemic season.
The Red Sox in 2018 are the most recent team that spent the most and won it all in a full season, per data at Spotrac. The Yankees won the Series in 2009 as the biggest spenders. It’s their only championship since 2000. They’ve also cut back on payroll spending.
So while a big payroll correlates to winning games, the largest bank account is not necessarily the start of a direct path to the largest trophy case.
–By David Brown, Field Level Media
