First Four Wednesday Betting Picks for Mount St. Mary’s vs. American and Xavier vs. Texas

The First Four continues Wednesday with a pair of intriguing games, one featuring Mount St. Mary’s taking on American University and the other Xavier vs. Texas. There has been some line movement for both games since sportsbooks posted the opening odds.

But that doesn’t mean you should avoid them. Knowing how the public is betting can help you decide what you want to do. To that end, let’s check these games out (odds via DraftKings).

First Four: Mount St. Mary’s (+120) vs. American University (-2.5)

The third game of this year’s NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship gets underway today at 6:40 p.m. Eastern, with the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (22-12) facing off against the American University Eagles (22-12). To the winner go the spoils — a date with Duke in the first round.

The Mountaineers earned their spot in the First Four thanks to a stifling defense that held their tournament opponents to no more than 58 points (they allowed 69.8 points per game during the regular season). However, the margin of victory in those games was only four, two and 14 points.

Defense led the way for the Eagles as well. Their conference opponents were held to 69, 62 and 52 points — numbers somewhat in line with their regular season average of 67.3 points allowed per game. They were pretty consistent on offense, too, scoring 71, 72 and 74 points.

Our pick: American -2.5 (opened at -1.5)

Had I caught this game when the line opened, I’d be all over the under. But it opened at 133.5 for this defensive battle, and it’s now 129.5. It’s only four points, but that’s enough for doubt to creep into my mind.

As for my pick, Mount St. Mary’s defense was tremendous during its conference tourney run, but it looked nothing like that during the regular season. American U’s defense, however, played just as well as it had all year during its tournament.

Consequently, I trust the Eagles to lock down the Mountaineers in this game and cover the spread.

First Four: Xavier (-3.5) vs. Texas (+140)

The First Four concludes with the Xavier Musketeers (22-11) taking on the Texas Longhorns (19-15). Game time is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. Eastern with coverage on truTV. The winner will officially become the No. 11 seed in the Midwest Region and face Illinois on Friday, March 21.

Xavier lost its last game, the Big East quarterfinal, to Marquette 89-87, but ended the regular season on a seven-game winning streak. Texas comes into the tournament with an inconsistent finish, losing four of its last five in the regular season.

Then the Longhorns beat Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament before losing to Tennessee in the semifinals, 83-72. However, before judging Texas too harshly, its schedule needs to be taken into consideration.

Texas went 5-8 against top-25 teams and 10-15 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams. Xavier was more consistent but went 2-5 against top-25 teams and 9-11 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams.

Our pick: Texas ML

I was comfortable taking the Texas moneyline when it opened at -102, but now that you can find it at +140, this bet absolutely has value. Xavier may look better on paper, but Texas would probably have been even better had it played a similar schedule.

If taking the Longhorns to win outright makes you nervous, the spread has gone from where it opened at +1 to +3.5.