Bitcoin (BTC) risks becoming part of a “classic bull trap” when the US-China trade war takes its next step, analysis warns.
In its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers on April 10, trading firm QCP Capital cautioned over the latest crypto price rebound.
QCP: Chinese “countermeasures” may leave crypto bulls stranded
Bitcoin and altcoins joined global stock markets in rallying over the past 24 hours thanks to a decision by US President Donald Trump to pause many of his new trade tariffs.
China was a clear exception to the policy, with Trump doubling down on those tariffs while alleviating pressure on other countries.
For QCP, now is the time not for relief, but to brace for China’s next move.
“With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing’s counterpunch,” it said.
“Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.”
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Such a scenario would form a repeat of market behavior already seen this week. As Cointelegraph reported, an earlier rumor of a tariff pause that failed to find official confirmation sparked whipsaw stock moves never seen before.
“The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution,” QCP continued.
“Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions.”
Bitcoin to get “meaningful slice” of yuan outflows
Others noted potential tailwinds for Bitcoin in the form of Chinese yuan devaluation as a stopgap measure in the trade dispute. USD/CNY hit 18-year lows of 7.35 on the day.
Related: Crypto stocks see big gains alongside US stock market rebound
No deal, PBOC continues a very gradual yuan weakening. Shit ‘bout to get spicy. Luckily $BTC loves money printing and associated ccy weakness. pic.twitter.com/RcVkSj54O3
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 10, 2025
“China beginning currency devaluation is more than just an economic signal—it’s a trigger,” Sina, co-founder of asset management firm 21st Capital, told X followers in part of a post on the topic.
“Historically, when the yuan weakens, capital doesn’t stay put. It escapes. Some of it flows into gold, some into foreign assets—and a meaningful slice finds its way into Bitcoin.”
USD/CNY 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Sina suggested that the macroeconomic reality would make BTC exposure more attractive going forward.
“Now layer on rising tariffs, slowing global trade, and a deepening crisis of confidence in traditional financial systems. The result? A growing demand for neutral, borderless, incorruptible assets,” he concluded.
“Bitcoin isn’t just a hedge anymore. It’s becoming a necessity in a world looking for stability outside the control of any one nation.”
In subsequent discussions, he acknowledged that Bitcoin had probably not yet seen a long-term price bottom.
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on various BTC price targets for a sustained rebound, with many of these focusing on $70,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
