The ongoing loop of tariff uncertainty from US President Donald Trump is the most significant risk for those betting big on Bitcoin over the next two months, a crypto analyst warns.
“The biggest threat to bulls right now is that nothing changes over the next two months, and we just stay trapped in this cycle of endless tariff ultimatums,” Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph.
US policymakers waiting for “hard data”
Hundal said there is a risk that US policymakers delay monetary easing until they get “hard data” on the impact of Trump’s tariffs, which would risk a “growth slowdown.”
On May 7, the Federal Reserve rate-setting committee held rates steady in the 4.25% to 4.50% range due to the rising risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation.
Hundal said if the uncertainty remains, it will cast a shadow over risk-on markets.
“If bears have their ‘I told you so’ moment, you could see Bitcoin drop back below $100,000,” Hundal said.
When Trump initially raised the issue of tariffs in early February, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $100,000 and remained volatile due to decisions around trade policy, pauses and announcements. It remained under that level for over three months until May 8.
The US Court of International Trade blocked Trump from imposing his tariffs on May 28, arguing that he overstepped his authority. However, Trump recently doubled tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to 50%.
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Hundal said the uncertainty may have jeopardized reaching the inflation target this year. “Six months ago, a 2% inflation target looked possible; today, it is under longer-term threat from tariffs,” he said. “The US is at a macro crossroads.”
“The Fed is walking a tightrope right now.”
End of tariffs could see new Bitcoin high
Hundal said the best-case scenario is an end to the “tariff sabre rattling” as that will create a “glide path” for Bitcoin to reach $120,000 in June.
Earlier, Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin may surge to new all-time highs above $115,000 in July if institutional buying continues and US job data is “weaker-than-expected.”
The analysts said a “softer-than-expected” report could reinforce the “disinflation narrative” and encourage the Federal Reserve to consider reducing interest rates sooner, which would be bullish for Bitcoin.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
