MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins, April 21

Woof. The harshest of bad beats on a baseball over/under bet unfortunately struck us yesterday, despite having baseball’s best closer in to finalize a 4-1 lead in the ninth inning against the bottom of an already suspect lineup.

Unfathomably, Emmanuel Clase got tagged for nearly as many earned runs in that fateful frame (three) as he did all of last season (five) in 74 1/3 innings. Without question, that was an ending that will definitely rank among the most shocking outcomes of the campaign out of all 2,430 regular-season games. Thankfully, the added second total hit on Sunday Night Baseball.

Now we move to the new week, starting with the usual shortened Monday slate. If you’ve been keeping tabs on this column every day, you can kinda surmise what today’s over/under wager is from going through each of the eight pitching matchups.

Well of course, it’s the series opener in South Beach between the Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins. Nick Lodolo is a friend of the program whom we’ve already leaned on in three bets (two totals and one moneyline), not to mention he was one of my top three sleepers entering the year. He squares off with Max Meyer, certainly an emerging friend of the program as well, given that we’re 2-0 on his unders in the early going.

And that’s exactly what we’ll try and scratch out once again this evening. Meyer has been undoubtedly one of the sport’s most notable breakout stories, and his pitching is a large reason why the under has gone 3-1 in his four starts.

Meyer matched his season high in runs allowed last time out (three) against the Arizona Diamondbacks — our victorious over/under bet last Wednesday — but he still shined nonetheless, notching his third quality start of 2025. If not for being one out away in his first assignment of the year, he would be a perfect 4-for-4 in that statistical category.

As I’ve highlighted already, not a soul should be surprised by Meyer’s emergence. This is a former third overall draft pick that came with a high ceiling, and he’s been exhibiting exactly why that was so.

The 26-year-old already showcased last year what he’s fully capable of when he pitched to a 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in three April starts. Meyer was quizzically sent down to the minors after that in order to keep his workload monitored, being that he had just returned from Tommy John surgery. Without having to worry about his current season getting interrupted, we can trust Meyer to keep propelling as a running locomotive with no stop in sight — perhaps toward an All-Star nod — especially with the additions of a new sinker and a sweeper to his arsenal.

Lodolo, meanwhile, is out to a similarly desirable beginning to the season. He’s in a unique spot here, too, considering he’s coming off the paternity list after just having his first child on Friday.

Such a plateau in life can certainly prove to be an extra variable depending on the player, but I think this can positively affect Lodolo, who maybe needed an extra breather anyway after failing to clock out with a quality start for the first time this year in his most recent outing. Lodolo actually got knocked out in the fifth of that game.

Refreshed and coming in with a new extra appreciation, I’m willing to back Lodolo once more — and in what can be viewed as a favorable matchup for the fourth-year southpaw.

Yes, the Marlins are surprisingly combating left-handed pitching better than most teams thus far with a .286/.340/.401 slash line through the first few weeks. At the same time, though, they’ve launched just three home runs in 269 at-bats, so if that’s out of the picture as far as this particular encounter goes, give me Lodolo to get back on track here.

Miami has consistently been one of the lowest-scoring teams in the majors in each of the last few years, and as a reminder, its .230/.286/.352 line opposite lefties last year was one of the worst out of all 30 clubs.

Operating with the thought that the Fish will begin regressing against southpaws sooner than later, I feel good about entrusting Lodolo in accelerating that prediction to come to fruition.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-110, BetMGM)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 15-13-1, -0.59 unit
Over/Unders: 13-9-1
Props: 2-3
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Results: Guardians-Pirates Under 8 (“loss”), Padres-Astros Under 7.5 (WIN)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.