Sweet 16 Best Bets: Top Picks and Expert Predictions for March Madness

As exciting as the quantity in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament can be, the Sweet 16 takes it to another level with quality. Gone are the teams that were happy just to make the Dance. As the competitive balance of the games steps up, so too has our “Best Bets” list.

The following are our best Sweet 16 bets for Thursday and Friday’s games.

Sweet 16 Best Bets: Thursday March 27th

BYU (+180) vs. Alabama (-5.5), o/u 174.5

Time: 7:09 p.m. ET
Date: Thursday, March 27
Coverage: CBS
Odds via BetMGM

With one of the most productive offenses in the game and one of the worst defenses, it’s been hard not to bet the over whenever Alabama plays (over is 19-15-1). I know what you’re thinking: 174.5 is such a high number for a college basketball game.

Alabama games have had a total of 174.4 or greater nine times this season; the over was 6-3 in those games.

BYU averages around 81 points per game this season (No. 25). While its defense does not rank as low as Alabama’s, it’s not impressive either (No. 155, 71.4 ppg allowed). Both teams love to shoot threes.

Our pick: These guys are hitting the over in this game.

Arizona (+315) vs. Duke (-8.5), o/u 153.5

Time: 9:39 p.m. ET
Date: Thursday, March 27
Coverage: CBS
Odds via FanDuel

Picking this game almost feels like cheating. Nothing against Arizona; the Wildcats have had a solid season and have proven themselves to be an excellent team. They can put up some points (No. 17, 82.2 ppg) and are beasts on the boards (No. 11 rebounds per game, 40.08).

But they just aren’t in the same class as Duke.

Duke already beat the Wildcats earlier in the season, 69-55. Yes, Arizona has improved significantly since then, but so has Duke. When they are healthy, few teams can hang with the Blue Devils, and Arizona is not one of them.

Our pick: Duke -8.5

Sweet 16 Best Bets: Friday, March 28th

Michigan (+330) vs. Auburn (-8.5), o/u 152.5

Time: 9:39 p.m. ET
Date: Friday, March 28
Coverage: CBS
Odds via DraftKings

The Wolverines have played well so far. They took care of UC San Diego (68-65) even though many analysts considered them a prime upset candidate. Texas A&M was favored in the second round, but the Aggies couldn’t defend in the second half without fouling.

But it will not be nearly as easy against Auburn. The Tigers are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation, can push the pace or hit from long range, and will not foul nearly as much as A&M did.

Michigan may keep it close in the first half, but I expect Auburn to lead by 10 at the break. The Wolverines struggle from the three-point line, so once the lead widens and they are forced to start throwing up three-pointers, it will be game over.

Our pick: Auburn -8.5

Purdue (+290) vs. Houston (-7.5), o/u 132.5

Time: 10:09 p.m. ET
Date: Friday, March 28
Coverage: TBS/truTV
Odds via BetMGM

It can make for an interesting game when two teams with similar styles play each other. Both Purdue and Houston prefer to let their defenses lead the way while scoring enough to win, often resulting in low-scoring games.

This strategy got Purdue past High Point in the first round and McNeese State in the second. Ditto for Houston, but with one significant difference: the Cougars are so much better at it.

Houston has the No. 1 defense in the country (58.4 points per game allowed). It has held 19 of 34 opponents below that mark this season. On the offensive end, the Cougars don’t do much (No. 152, 74.5 ppg), but since they allow so much less, it doesn’t matter what they score.

The other team will score less.

Our pick: Houston -7.5