Breaking Down the Bracket: Regional Picks and Final Four Predictions

Picking chalk in the NCAA Tournament is, ironically, a bold prediction.

Just once in the tournament’s modern era has the Final Four featured all four No. 1 seeds — in 2008. This year’s crop just happens to be the highest-rated quartet since the dawn of KenPom.com. Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn all rate higher than plus-35, something never before seen since the metrics website began tracking data in 1997.

When I ran this exercise back in late January, I settled on Duke, Houston, Auburn and Michigan State as a good Final Four bet. But now we have regions and brackets laid out before us. Tempting as it is to replace the Spartans with Florida and call it a day, let’s reason these out one region at a time.

South Region

Auburn lost three of its last four, convincing some folks to steer clear of the Tigers. Those losses came against some of the best teams the SEC has to offer, so let’s not overreact. And after getting past a woefully underseeded No. 8 Louisville, the Tigers would enjoy a chance to sink their teeth into a revenge game against No. 4 Texas A&M, which beat them two weeks ago.

But the No. 2 seed here is Michigan State, which has a pretty easy road to the Elite Eight (since No. 3 Iowa State will be down a key starter in Keshon Gilbert). This is Tom Izzo’s best team since before the pandemic, and the Spartans are better than Auburn in two key areas: rebounding and getting to the line. I have this unshakable feeling we’re getting one last Izzo run to the Final Four.

Pick: No. 2 Michigan State

East Region

I said this Monday: Duke has the easiest path of the No. 1 seeds, so much so that it could make the Sweet 16 with Cooper Flagg in street clothes, resting his sprained ankle. Once Duke’s there, I’m not concerned about a 12-loss Arizona in the No. 4 spot, though a very well-rounded Oregon could give the Blue Devils trouble as the No. 5 seed.

Meanwhile, your other best candidates are No. 2 Alabama, whose defense I don’t trust, and No. 3 Wisconsin. Duke-Alabama and Duke-Wisconsin could make for some really fun Elite Eight matchups, but neither of these teams is ready for the brand of grind-it-out defense the Blue Devils play.

Pick: No. 1 Duke

Midwest Region

What a fun region. No. 1 Houston and No. 2 Tennessee have been knocking on the door for years now. The No. 3 seed is Kentucky, in Mark Pope’s first season as coach, and Purdue, Clemson and Illinois have all had moments this season where they’ve looked elite.

Between their terrific defenses and the slow tempos they each like to play, a Houston-Tennessee Elite Eight matchup feels like first one to 50 wins. The Cougars are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams out there — but the Vols have the No. 1 perimeter defense in Division I. If they chase the Cougars off the arc, I like the size of Felix Okpara and company to stop a Houston team that’s below average on 2-pointers.

Pick: No. 2 Tennessee

West Region

Working against top-seeded Florida is that the West is the most difficult region, home to five of the top 15 KenPom teams. The Gators could face two-time defending champion UConn in the round of 32, a red-hot Maryland team in the Sweet 16, and St. John’s, Texas Tech, Missouri or even Kansas in the Elite Eight. Even conceding the fact that UConn and Kansas aren’t serious title contenders, this is a meat grinder.

Yet I keep coming back to the Gators’ profile and can’t find a matchup that I don’t like for them. They’re a wildly efficient offense that will make 3-pointers while stopping the three at the other end. They protect the ball and rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage, so they’ll control possession. This is my other No. 1 seed selection for San Antonio.

Pick: No. 1 Florida