Bitcoin (BTC) starts June with BTC price action in a dangerous place — can buyers preserve key bull market support levels?
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Bitcoin traders are gearing up for fresh volatility as the highest-ever monthly close contrasts with increasing bets of a $100,000 retest.
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Labor market weakness and Fed policy are back under the microscope as inflation diverges from interest rates.
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The latest price volatility has led investors across the hodler spectrum to rethink their BTC exposure.
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Retail is only just waking up, but Bitcoin whales are already exhibiting classic trend reversal behavior.
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Can profitability fuel another run to as high as $120,000?
Bitcoin RSI data taints best-ever monthly close
Bitcoin managed to “save” the weekly candle close by the skin of its teeth, capping a week of retracement, which at one point totaled 8%.
At around $105,700, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, the weekly close came in above a key level from December 2024 — one which analysis stated needed to hold.
We held above $104,500 on the weekly close. Bullish on this. pic.twitter.com/anfq88qeQt
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) June 2, 2025
The results, however, were bittersweet, with a bearish divergence playing out on the relative strength index (RSI).
A classic trend strength indicator, RSI has printed a lower high as price hits and withdraws from its highest-ever levels.
“Weekly bearish divergence locked in – and a potential bearish retest forming here as well,” popular trader Jelle warned in a post on X.
“Big day ahead for Bitcoin, testing some lower levels is not unlikely so long as the black line isn’t reclaimed.”
May ultimately sealed 11% gains, and marked the highest monthly close ever for BTC/USD despite the late comedown.
Now, data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that the majority of order book liquidity lies above, not below, price.
In his latest X thread, fellow trader CrypNuevo used liquidity to predict an eventual rebound to $113,000.
‘We’ll eventually hit that range. Ideally $100k –> $113k,” he argued about his preferred BTC price trajectory.
Powell in the spotlight as inflation and Fed diverge
US unemployment and Federal Reserve policy are the two key elements on the radar for risk-asset traders this week.
The strength of the labor market is under scrutiny after hints of weakness in recent data challenged the Fed’s ability to hold interest rates “higher for longer.”
The April print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which came in at or below expectations, at the same time confirmed slowing inflationary pressure.
“The moderating level of inflation means that the short-term fed funds interest rate is the highest above PCE since heading into the financial crisis in 2008,” trading firm Mosaic writes in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“That might explain why Trump summoned Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week to pressure the central bank into cutting rates.”
US President Donald Trump’s first meeting with Powell last week nonetheless did little to boost bets that current hawkish policy may change in the near future. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows markets rejecting the possibility of a rate cut before September.
Powell himself is due to speak at the opening of the Fed Board’s International Finance Division 75th Anniversary Conference in Washington DC on June 2.
Continuing, Mosaic Asset identifies a potential Bitcoin tailwind in the form of declining US dollar strength against the background of trade-tariff uncertainty.
The US dollar index (DXY) has dropped back below 99 after flipping the three-figure boundary from support to resistance last month.
“If downside in DXY accelerates after losing the 100 level, that could also signal long-term concern over the outlook for U.S. economic growth and fiscal condition,” Mosaic adds.
“That could serve as another bullish catalyst for precious metals and Bitcoin.”
Hodler flows suggest “market in transition”
Bitcoin’s roughly 8% comedown from all-time highs has already sparked a shift in investor behavior.
While preserving $105,000 at the latest weekly close, BTC investors have not retained the levels of exposure seen during the height of upside in May.
In its latest research, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals three signs that hodlers have begun to reduce risk.
“These include significant stablecoin outflows from Binance, a decline in long-term holder (LTH) interest, and contrasting accumulation patterns among different wallet cohorts,” contributor Amr Taha summarizes in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.
Binance stablecoin outflows tapped $1 billion at the end of May — potentially reflecting traders’ desire to hedge against risk.
“Stablecoin netflows are a critical liquidity indicator; negative netflows suggest that traders are moving funds out of exchanges,” Taha explains.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) — entities hodling for six months or more — saw their realized cap decline through the end of the month. Realized cap refers to the combined value of all LTH coins measured by the price at which they last moved.
“The combination of heavy stablecoin withdrawals, reduced LTH accumulation, and shifting cohort behaviors signals a market in transition,” CryptoQuant concludes.
“Whether this sets the stage for a cooling-off period, a healthy consolidation, or renewed momentum will depend on how new capital re-enters the system and whether retail buyers can sustain the current rally without institutional reinforcement.”
Whales rethink accumulation
A similar scenario is playing out among Bitcoin whales.
“Entities holding between (1k~10k) BTC have gradually reduced their exposure as Bitcoin’s price climbed from $81K to $110K, systematically distributing their holdings in a phased manner throughout the rally’s progression,” CryptoQuant reports.
Retail holders, having ignored Bitcoin’s comeback until new all-time highs hit, are now diverging from whales by accumulating “at the top.”
Changing whale patterns have not gone unnoticed elsewhere. In its latest biweekly report on May 30, research firm Santiment described “clear signs of profit-taking.”
“High whale activity during market tops can sometimes point to distribution, or smart money taking profit. We have consistently seen sudden major whale transaction spikes mark price bottoms (like the one we saw on Apr 7, 2025) or price tops (i.e., May 22, 2025),” it wrote.
“Think of them as fantastic reversal indicators, with the latest signal showing some clear profit-taking.”
Santiment suggested watching crypto market sentiment cues for hints as to where price might be headed in June.
“We’ve seen sentiment flip from euphoric to fearful in a matter of days, and price behavior has followed these emotions with near-perfect timing,” it noted.
After dropping by nearly 25% in two days last week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index now stands at 64/100, marking a return to “greed” territory.
Profit-taking hints at $120,000 “local top”
Should the bull market stage a snap comeback, bets are already in over where the next upside target — and local top — may be.
Related: How low can the Bitcoin price go?
Last week, onchain analytics firm Glassnode leveraged hodler profitability to delineate price points at which profit-taking should again pause BTC price upside. For this it used standard deviation on the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio.
“MVRV Ratio compares BTC’s market price to the average investor cost basis – helping gauge when investors hold outsized unrealized profits,” it explained in an X thread on May 30.
“We’re now trading between +0.5σ ($100.2K) and +1σ ($119.4K) bands, a zone that has often preceded local tops.”
BTC price action could thus preserve $100,000 as support, contrasting with other downside targets which include a return closer to the $90,000 mark.
“While $BTC is near overheated territory, it hasn’t yet crossed above the +1σ MVRV band – a level that historically triggers mass profit-taking,” Glassnode added.
“Until then, the market may still have room to run before investor gains become ‘too good not to sell.’”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
