May 4, 2025; Anaheim, California, USA; Detroit Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter (30) celebrates with teammates after hitting a three run home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the sixth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images Sometimes, the World Series teams are two clubs that began establishing themselves as championship favorites by early May. While they weren’t yet leading their respective leagues, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees were each 23-13 entering play a year ago today.
But most of the time, the eventual World Series combatants didn’t yet look the part by the first week of May.
Eleven of the 20 teams to reach the World Series in the last 10 full seasons were within five games of .500 through May 5 of their pennant-winning season. Four of those clubs — the pennant-winning 2014 Kansas City Royals (14-17) and 2022 Philadelphia Phillies (11-15), and the championship-winning 2019 Washington Nationals (14-19) and 2021 Atlanta Braves (14-16) — were under .500 on that date.
Only two World Series teams since 2014 — the curse-busting 2016 Chicago Cubs (21-6) and the 2018 champion Boston Red Sox (24-9) — had baseball’s best record through May 5.
All of which is to say: we may be surprised by who emerges in the World Series in late October. Here’s a look at five potential pennant winners in each league.
American League
Apr 22, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Ben Rice (22) celebrates his solo home run with right fielder Aaron Judge (99) in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images Detroit Tigers (22-13): Disregard everything we said about World Series teams not looking the part before May 5. The Tigers, who lead the AL with a 2.96 ERA and rank second with a .755 OPS, are the most well-rounded team in the Junior Circuit and seem to have found a little bit of magic during last year’s surprising playoff run.
New York Yankees (19-16): The defending champs of a mediocre league have the first-month MVP in .400-chasing Aaron Judge and the first-month Cy Young in Max Fried, who is flirting with a Bob Gibson-esque ERA. And, well, that’s it. Brian Cashman will surely be active at the trade deadline, but the Yankees will only go as far as Judge, Fried and a little institutional memory can carry them.
Seattle Mariners (20-14): With eight straight series wins and a surprisingly potent offense, the Mariners have already offered plenty of reasons to daydream they can finally end baseball’s longest World Series drought and reach the Fall Classic for the first time. But we’ve all been teased before by the Mariners, whose path to late October will require figuring out life without Logan Gilbert and George Kirby for an extended period.
Not the Sacramento Athletics (20-16): The surprising Athletics are a long shot to keep this up over the long haul. But imagine Major League come to life with a team that makes the World Series after the owner purposely tanks his way out of town. And how delicious it’d be seeing Rob Manfred squirming and trying to convince everyone how great it is that the World Series is being played in a Triple-A park with a media center that looks like a shed you’d buy at Home Depot.
Texas Rangers (17-18): The Rangers, with the fourth-lowest OPS in the game, have already begun shuffling desk chairs by firing “offensive coordinator” Donnie Ecker and replacing him with Bret Boone. But Texas also has the fourth-best ERA in the AL, and you can never underestimate the possibility of Bruce Bochy, in the last year of his contract, going out in style by winning yet another World Series.
National League
May 4, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan (33) dives safely to home plate in the third inning as New York Mets catcher Luis Torrens (13) waits on the throw at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Vizer-Imagn Images New York Mets (23-13): Like the Tigers, the Mets look like they found something magical during a stunning playoff run last season. It also helps that Pete Alonso is mounting an early Triple Crown run and that David Stearns has constructed a deep bullpen behind an effective yet thin rotation.
Chicago Cubs (22-14): The Cubs are averaging a whopping six runs per game, which puts them on pace to finish with the most runs since the 2000 White Sox (978). They also lead baseball with a plus-69 run differential despite playing 30 games against over-.500 teams — by far the most in baseball. Pretty, pretty good.
Los Angeles Dodgers (24-11): The billion-dollar pitching staff fell apart almost as soon as the season began, but the Dodgers still have the best record in baseball because they are still the Dodgers. As always, the season will come down to Dave Roberts trying to MacGyver his way through October while everyone else gets the credit.
San Diego Padres (23-11): It’s now or never for the Padres, whose days of spending big in a small market are probably over following the death of owner Peter Seidler. But no team other than the Dodgers is as complete as San Diego, which leads the majors with a 2.73 ERA and has an early NL MVP candidate in Fernando Tatis Jr.
Cincinnati Reds (18-18): Here’s a long shot in a loaded NL. But nobody mixes and matches better come October than Terry Francona, the Hall of Fame-bound manager looking for one more Fall Classic trip. If the Reds can squeak in, they’ll be a team nobody wants to play — especially if Cincinnati can build some momentum with a wild-card series win.
